Reconstructing the Mathematical Paradigm of Knowledge-Work Performance Evaluation: Theory and Empirical Validation through a Stochastic-Process and Conditional-Expectation Framework
What happens when traditional performance metrics can no longer capture the uncertainty and complexity of knowledge work in the age of artificial intelligence? This paper proposes a new mathematical framework that redefines performance as a stochastic process evolving under incomplete information. By integrating probability theory, econometrics, and management science, the study argues that conditional expectation provides the optimal foundation for evaluating human capability in dynamic organizational systems — offering a rigorous path toward more adaptive and intelligent models of performance assessment.